Ideas under development

Partially in the spirit of full disclosure, and partially as good place to park my notes so I don't forget about them, here are some ideas I think would be interesting to develop further:

1. The Real Voodoo Economics

   Why does the media persist in embracing the collective delusion that the U.S. President is responsible for the economic cycle? Given that the Prez, in our system, has no control over monetary policy and only limited control over fiscal policy, by what theory do the pundocracy believe that the President influences the level of economic activity over a short to medium term horizon? Is this dumb or what?

2. Witchhunting Season

   Up here in Columbia County (about 100 miles North of the Empire State Building), we are in the thick of deer hunting season. Walking around outside, your aural landscape is punctuated by isolated and occasionally staccato outbursts of high powered rifle fire. Not that I have anything against it, mind you. Deer are just giant rats, only cuter. But walking outside, you are careful to wear bright colors, and warn the kids not to stray too far from the house.

   Anyway, 100 miles to our South, Elliot Spitzer is in the thick of what seems like its been a very long witch hunting season. And he's already bagged a respectable number of scalps: Merrill Lynch, taking the dive for the low end money; Citigroup, tossing the luckless Michael Carpenter over the railing in an effort to distract the sharks; and a (possible) multi-billion dollar settlement from the securities industry is in his sights.

   So far, so good. But anyone who has been paying any attention at all for the last five years recognizes that we (collectively) participated in a classic market bubble. And, again in classical style, the bubble has burst, leading to a prolonged decline in market valuations, multiples, and 401k balances.
   But this is America. When anyone suffers an injury, even if their own foolishness or greed played some part in the events, somebody else has to pay. Hence the "will it float?" drama writ large upon our the pages of our daily business press.

   Blech. My question is this: Mr. Spitzer is an ambitious Democrat from NY State, where Wall Street plays a major role in the local economy and certainly in funding the ambitions of young pols. Where does he think he is going with this inquisition and how will it help him become Governor/President/whatever?

   Answers, anyone?

3. Saddam's Real Challenge

   I forget the exact date... December 8th? Something like that. Anyway, the Iraqi government is on the hook to provide the fearsome Mr. Hans Blix with an accounting of their WMDs. President Bush has broadly implied that a reiteration of the (current) Iraqi line that they have no WMDs will be seen as sufficient grounds to start the troops rolling towards Baghdad. The issue that Saddam and his co-dependents must be wrestling with is how much do they have to give up to maintain the fiction of compliance with the recent UNSC resolution? Which of their sites do the Americans already know about? How can they list only those sites that have already appeared on foreign intelligence radar screens while maintaining as much of crown jewels (of mass murder) as possible?

   Talk about high stakes poker. I wonder if Saddam is managing to keep up his swimming regimen while he wrestles with these (for him at least) existential issues.